On December 26, Israel recognized Somaliland, a move driven not by local aspirations but by competitive geopolitics in the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea. Seen as part of an “Axis of Secession”—a strategy to weaken fragmented states via client polities—this recognition aimed to secure strategic footholds and maritime access, notably challenging Ethiopia and Turkey’s influence.
However, the move has largely backfired. Instead of bolstering Somaliland’s independence, the association with Israel has isolated the breakaway region, drawing condemnation from the Arab and Muslim world. Diplomatic pressure from a Saudi-led coalition, alongside China and regional powers, has pushed Ethiopia to retreat from a maritime deal with Somaliland. Ultimately, Israel’s recognition has strengthened Somalia’s sovereignty, resulting in a rare global consensus supporting its territorial integrity.
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