Radio: Huskies Gameday App, Sports Radio KJR
Betting Line: Washington Huskies -11.5
Utah Utes 2025-26 Statistics:
Points For per Game: 82.4 (68th)
Points Against per Game: 78.8 (256th)
Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 114.0 (89th)
Adjusted Defensive Efficiency: 109.9 (198th)
Strength of Schedule: 254th
G- Terrence Brown, Jr. 6’3, 175: 21.5 ppg, 2.0 rpg, 3.9 apg, 45.8% FG, 31.9% 3pt, 78.2% FT
Evanmiya.com Stats: +1.79 BPR (893rd nationally); +1.82 OBPR, -0.03 DBPR
Brown transferred in from Fairleigh-Dickinson where he played almost every minute and averaged 20+ points per game as an ultra-high usage guard. The minutes per game have gone down but Brown has a top-30 usage rate in the country and is one of the leading scorers in the country. He isn’t the most efficient shooter in the world but so far is shooting a career best from every part of the court and is adept at drawing fouls while almost never turning it over. The names are similar on top of everything else but this is truly a Terrell Brown Jr. type season that he had for UW.
G- Dom McHenry, Sr. 6’2, 170: 19.2 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 1.8 apg, 49.0% FG, 48.0% 3pt, 97.6% FT
Evanmiya.com Stats: +1.63 BPR (952nd nationally); +3.11 OBPR, -1.49 DBPR
McHenry would be considered one of the best scorers in the Big 12 this season if he wasn’t being overshadowed by his teammate. Together they are one of (if not the top) highest scoring duos in the country at 40 points per game. This is McHenry’s 3rd stop after Hawaii and Western Kentucky and he has averaged at least 14.3 points per game each year. He’s a better shooter than Brown and takes nearly half of his shots from outside.
F- Seydou Traore, Jr. 6’6, 220: 10.0 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 2.0 apg, 42.2% FG, 40.8% 3pt, 77.8% FT
Evanmiya.com Stats: +0.15 BPR (1673rd nationally); -0.23 OBPR, +0.38 DBPR
This is also Traore’s 3rd stop after beginning his career at Manhattan where he was a key starter but then mostly coming off the bench at Iowa last year. He has been more important for Utah and is shooting by far a career best from deep so far with the attention that Brown/McHenry command for opposing defenses. He is playing a true 3 and D role for the Utes.
F- Kendyl Sanders, Fr, 6’8, 230: 5.7 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 0.8 apg, 44.1% FG, 33.3% 3pt, 25.0% FT
Evanmiya.com Stats: -0.37 BPR (1952nd nationally); -0.45 OBPR, +0.08 DBPR
It wasn’t expected that Sanders would be playing this big a role this early as he was the #328 recruit in the country per the 247 Sports Composite. Sanders comes off the bench but has generally been part of the closing lineup for Utah more recently at the PF spot while occasionally playing spot minutes at center in small ball lineups. It’s not often you see a player shooting better from the three-point line than the free throw line with 20+ attempts from both but that’s the case for Sanders. He’s 11/33 from deep and 5/20 from the line. Incredible.
C- Keanu Dawes, Jr. 6’9, 225: 11.8 ppg, 9.3 rpg, 3.1 ast, 62.1% FG, 15.4% 3pt, 76.9% FT
Evanmiya.com Stats: +4.45 BPR (244th nationally); +3.49 OBPR, +0.96 DBPR
Dawes started his career at Rice but played significant minutes for Utah last year where he was one of the best post scorers in the country. That has taken an even bigger leap so far this year with Dawes shooting a ridiculous 82% on two-point shots (61 attempts) but just 15% on three-point shots (26 attempts). Any time the Huskies can force him to take a jumper it’s a clear win for the defense even if he is closer to a 30% career outside shooter. Dawes is a very good rebounder with his physicality but he’s not a good rim protector so he won’t be blocking many shots inside.
The Big Ten is certainly a tough league but tonight is the beginning of an absolute gauntlet for Utah who already are not off to the best start. The Utes are 8-4 just like Washington but have just one win over a team in the top-110 of KenPom and that was a one-point squeaker against a struggling Ole Miss squad. This is the first game the Utes will play against a top-50 KenPom team with a trio of losses to teams between 60th and 94th. But because Utah is the worst team in the Big 12 this year, they don’t play another game against a team ranked worse than 84th at KenPom the rest of the way.
The Utah administration opted to try to copy BYU after they hired an NBA assistant coach with ties to the program and experienced immediate success. It hasn’t worked out quite as well with the move to Alex Jensen in part because they haven’t had nearly the NIL to give him the needed pieces. Utah mostly worked on the cheap to pick up a couple of high volume scorers from low-to-mid majors in Brown and McHenry when there were doubts that their game would translate at the high major level. So far it has worked
Utah’s adjusted offensive efficiency is actually slightly worse than last year per KenPom but they’ve put the ball in the basket thanks to a poor slate of opposing defenses and shooting in the top-70 overall from both inside and outside of the arc. Brown is a plus driver who draws plenty of fouls, McHenry and Traore have knocked down outside shots at 40%+ on 10+ attempts per game, and Dawes is a monster if he gets the ball near the rim. That’s a winning formula even if I’m sure they wish they could get a few extra offensive rebounds.
The problems have generally come on the defensive end. Utah rotates in four bigs but all of them are either 6’8 or 6’9 so they don’t have truly elite size. Dawes is a good defensive rebounder (44th nationally) but no one else has a DRB% better than 14%. The Huskies have 5 players over that threshold right now. Starting 6’9 PF Josh Hayes has a 9.9% block rate which is very good but has trouble staying on the court because of foul trouble but their primary starting center has the block rate of a 6’5 small forward.
Utah’s primary defensive strategy appears to be don’t let the opponent get three-point shots and force them into isolation basketball (top-30 nationally in opponent 3-pt rate and assist rate). That isn’t going to be much different for a Husky team that wants to drive the ball at every opportunity anyways and isn’t great at passing it. Expect to see plenty of Zoom Diallo and Desmond Claude driving to the basket whenever they want knowing that there won’t be a lot of stiff opposition in their path.
I predicted the Huskies to ultimately pull it out against Seattle U (because I didn’t see UW going 1/15 from 3) but I noted that it seemed like a terrible matchup. The Redhawks had a team full of plus shot blockers going up against a Husky team that wanted to take the ball to the hoop all the time and that was prone to getting their shot blocked against normal teams. This seems like the opposite where Utah’s strengths don’t match up well against what the Huskies like to do.
I’ll still pick the Utes to cover because it’s hard to trust the Dawgs against solid competition right now but I have a better feeling than I did against Seattle (which shouldn’t be a surprise since Utah is ranked worse at KenPom).
Washington Huskies– 85, Utah Utes- 77
Season picks: 8-4 straight up, 6-6 against the spread
