No. 5 Seed
Things get trickier from here as Wild Card scenarios tend to get wacky.
But the easy math you need to know is this: if the Chargers beat the Texans and the Bills lose to the Eagles, the No. 5 seed is the lowest spot the Chargers could be.
A Bolts win Saturday would improve them to 12-4 overall and 9-2 in conference play.
Buffalo, which is 11-4 overall and 8-3 in the AFC, would drop to 11-5 with a proposed loss Sunday to Philadelphia.
Even if the Chargers then lose and the Bills win in Week 18 — putting both teams at 12-5 and 9-3 in conference play — the Bolts would be the No. 5 seed due to a better record in common games played (4-0 against 2-2).
Both the Chargers and Bills beat the Dolphins and Steelers, but the Chargers beat the Eagles, who would hypothetically top the Bills in the situation above.
Plus, the Chargers proposed win over the Texans would also give them an advantage as Buffalo lost to Houston earlier in the season.
The No. 5 seed, which the Chargers earned in 2024, would mean a road game in the Wild Card Round against the AFC North champion.
No. 6 Seed
There are multiple outcomes where the Chargers would end up as the No. 6 seed.
But the simplest way is this: if the Chargers win Saturday, the sixth seed is the absolute lowest spot they could be.
The No. 6 seed would mean a road date with the AFC’s No. 3 seed in the Wild Card Round.
Entering Saturday, that spot is projected to be the Jaguars as the winners of the AFC South.
No. 7 Seed
If the Chargers lose to the Texans, they are on a path to being the No. 7 seed.
In this scenario, the Bolts and Texans would both be 11-5, but Houston would hold the head-to-head tiebreaker.
The chances of the Chargers being the No. 7 seed would depend on Buffalo’s outcome Sunday against Philadelphia, plus what potentially happens in Week 18.
